1515 The Arctic Circle Airport - A Comparative Study

1515 The Arctic Circle Airport - A Comparative Study


Falko Müller, Svein Bråthen, Hilde Johanne Svendsen


Møreforsking Molde AS


Mo Industripark AS, Nova Sea AS og Polarsirkelen Lufthavnutvikling AS




978-82-7830-240-8 (elektronisk), 978-82-7830-241-5 (trykt) / 0806-0789





This report aims to approximate the demand for a non-stop flight route between the future Artic Circle Airport and the airport of Oslo on the basis of a comparison with regard to the routes Molde-Oslo, Kristiansund-Oslo and Harstad/Narvik-Oslo. It claims to be an approximation based on a simple but yet transparent comparative study.

This study analyses the reference routes with respect to underlying population and employment numbers and derives average per capita trip rates for both, the leisure traveler and the business traveler segment. Those trip rates are in a second step applied to the respective population and employment numbers of the catchment area of a future Arctic Circle Airport and corresponding demand figures are approximated.
According to 2014 traffic numbers, considering specific characteristic of the reference routes and reflecting two different scenarios, our analysis gives 'most likely estimates' of 278100 - 328500 passangers per year on a direct route to Oslo. This indicates that the medium/long term demand for a future non-stop Oslo-route should be sufficient to attract an airline serving this route at least three times per weekday and one time per day during weekends with Boeing 737/800s or the like.